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Pastoralists need to manage the feed gap risk that climatic/forage resource variability presents. We use the PHYGROW model to better understand interactions between this variability and the effectiveness of a geographically fixed pastoral community management area (CMA) in the Gobi Desert. The model shows significant intra-and inter-annual forage variability within sites, as well as significant variation between sites. Interviews with 9-Erdene members, and others, indicate that ‘rule breaking’ through departure of pastoralists and livestock from the area during frequent poor forage years is common, although other CMA institutions that maximise livestock body condition have been maintained. There is significant risk that designing and adequately policing geographically fixed pastoral systems at this scale will facilitate overgrazing and reduce livelihoods. The provision of financial and in-kind support that provides more diverse, affordable and accessible risk management options to pastoralists may be more effective at promoting good rangeland condition than further effort to closely define the boundaries of household grazing lands.