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Rainfall in arid and semi-arid environments is a major determinant of system dynamics which results in seasonal fluctuations in forage production. The influence of fixed and variable stocking strategies on the distributions of forage deficit period and net return for various range condition scenarios were examined using a bioeconomic model. Although the risk of forage deficits and financial losses were reduced with lighter stocking, this was at the opportunity cost of higher returns during wetter seasons. Increased stocking increased returns during wetter seasons, but at the cost of increased risk of forage deficits and highly negative returns during drier seasons. Flexible stocking may combine the benefits of each approach and reduce financial risk. The development of cumulative probability distributions will allow range users to assess the level of risk attached to different strategies. Incorporation of the ecological effects of stocking strategies as feedback into the model would be important to evaluate ecological risk.