Doak modeled the long term effects of Mompha albapalpella damage on dwarf fireweed (Epilobium latifolium) plants in Alaska using a transition matrix model based on data collected after natural and simulated light and heavy Mompha albapalpella herbivory on large and small plants. The results of the pre-modeling study and modeling revealed that herbivory, even at low intensities or frequencies, has lasting effects on fireweed plants, reducing seed pod mass and production and plant aboveground biomass, growth, and survival. The model also revealed that yearly defoliation patterns need to be considered when determining long term effects because averaging defoliation of plants may not lead to the correct conclusions, for example, in this study low frequencies of high levels of damage were less damaging than high frequencies of low levels of damage, even though average defoliation was 50% over the lifetime of the plants in both cases.
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