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Mulga (Acacia aneura and related species) is a drought-tolerant tree that dominates large parts of Australia's arid and semi-arid zone. Following a severe drought in 2017-2019, mass mortality was reported across the distribution of mulga. In 2021-2022, there was substantial rainfall in some regions that was expected to stimulate a mulga recruitment pulse. In this study, we quantify mortality and recruitment following these events in two land uses that differ in their grazing pressure. We surveyed inside and outside the Arid Recovery Reserve, Roxby Downs, SA. Inside the conservation reserve, small native mammals are present —bettongs, bandicoots, and bilbies. Outside the reserve, the land is managed for pastoralism, with livestock, native kangaroos, and feral rabbits. During 2023-2024, we surveyed ten 0.5 ha plots in each land use. In each plot, we counted alive and recently dead mulga plants to quantify mortality and mulga seedlings to assess recruitment. We found that adult drought mortality was 1.8 times higher outside the reserve (50%) than inside (28%). Recruitment after the rainfall was insufficient to offset the drought mortality in either land use type. Inside the reserve, plots had 0.0 1 seedlings per dead adult and outside the reserve, there were no seedlings. Our results reveal high drought-induced mortality in mulga is exacerbated outside reserves, where livestock and feral animals are present. L ow subsequent recruitment indicates that these mulga populations may be at risk. It is imperative to predict mulga population trajectories to conserve the vegetation and functioning of Australia's arid and semi-arid ecosystems.