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The objective of this study was to characterize precipitation patterns and their relationship to fire occurrence in the Mojave Desert.� To develop an understanding of recent precipitation regimes we classified monthly precipitation maps from 1971-2010 into four discrete zones defined by the magnitude and timing of precipitation: low winter/low summer, moderate winter/moderate summer, high winter/low summer and high winter/high summer. We found that the two regimes with moderate and high summer precipitation covered less than half of the ecoregion yet contained 88% of the area burned and 95% of the area of repeat burns. To determine if precipitation regime boundaries shift due to extended periods of drought or above average precipitation, we applied the regime classification to historic monthly data for early-century (wet period) and mid-century (drought) periods. The early-century precipitation regimes are quite similar to current, while the mid-century results show sizeable shift in the precipitation regime boundaries with a large reduction in area of monsoonal effect. �Anecdotal records of fire occurrence show that the mid-century period had a low occurrence of fire. �To infer potential future fire occurrence we assessed downscaled precipitation from global climate models for 2010-2099. The selected climate models suggest numerous extended periods of high precipitation across the ecoregion. These results would suggest higher fire potential in the middle and high-elevation areas of the ecoregion for many multi-decade periods during the next century.