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Global climate change has been shown to impact rangeland environments by reducing biodiversity, degrading vegetation structure and hindering plant community resilience. These effects may be accentuated with poorly managed grazing regimes. In the southern Mediterranean region, native shrub species such as Salsola vermiculata L. and Atriplex leucoclada (Boiss) provides an important forage for the production of meat and wool that supports local agro-pastoralists. In contrast, Haloxylon salicornicum (Moq.) is an invasive species that is a non-palatable shrub that competes with desirable native species. The purpose of this study is to assess the influence of climate change on the establishment and growth of these shrub species. Climate envelopes were generated to predict potential effects of climate change on vegetation response. Environmental variables included in the analysis were eight climate, three soil property, one altitude, and one grazing pressure layers. Results indicate that preferred shrub species are declining due to the combined effects of climate change and grazing pressure. While the undesirable species have an advantage due to reduced competition for water and nutrients. These results suggest that without improved management, these sensitive communities could experience elevated degradation. In fact, an adaptation strategy is needed to increase the resilience of the most vulnerable species based on grazing management, the selection of more drought tolerant taxa and the establishment of other mitigation measures, such as water harvesting techniques.