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Grassland systems are one of the most important ice-free ecosystems on Earth. They are important suppliers of ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, biodiversity support, or pollination. However, in the last decades, there has been evidence of climate change linked to higher temperatures and reduced precipitation. In this study, we provide insight into the long-term dynamics of grassland systems that could help guide sustainable management. Grasslands in Spain are commonly located in the northern regions but also extend inland, where herbaceous and shrubby vegetation have adapted to thrive despite water scarcity conditions. Our study targets the region of Madrid, at the heart of the Iberian Peninsula, where grasslands cover almost 41% of territory. With reference to the Sixth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we established a 5×5 km grid to assess the proportion of grassland coverage. We employed proximity to a soil pit and a minimum grassland coverage of 40% within each grid cell as selection criteria. We gathered daily historical climate data on temperature and precipitation from 1950 to 2014 and future projections from 2015 to 2100. The future projections were SSP-4.5 and SSP-8.5 scenarios based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. First, we used MODIS data (200 0–2024) to identify grassland coverage anomalies. Then, we applied the SIMPAST model, which required climate data, hydrological balance, solar radiation, and an initial seed count. Vegetation species were identified from September to May 2024 –2025.