Get reliable science

Land use decision making today is made within a complex system with numerous interrelationships of ecological, economic, and social considerations. Farmers and ranchers alike face constant changes in commodity and input markets, technology advances and political shuffling that are likely to influence land allocation decisions. Imbedded within these decisions are cultural and social factors such as individual family goals and objectives. A systems approach that links the socio-economic and political factors with individual's land use decision making processes and natural resource limitations could provide much needed insight and understanding for policy makers, managers, and researchers to better understand agricultural land use changes. We model these changes using system dynamics (SD) methodology to forecast grassland conversion in the Northern Great Plains (NGP). Data from USDA's National Agricultural Statistics (NASS), Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), U.S. Census Bureau, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) were used for calibration of the model. Endogenous model structure include three types of stocks: land (e.g., grassland, farmland, non-agricultural land), resources (e.g., grain produced, cattle inventory), and people (i.e., rural population). Structural flows include grain production and consumption, cattle production and consumption, land allocation decisions, and changes in rural populations. Forcing functions (exogenous to model structure) include precipitation, government subsidy types, and input markets. This model is used to forecast land use change in the NGP caused by changes in both the endogenous and exogenous variables with the intent to inform producers and policy makers about the current and potential states of the NGP.