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Estimation of the sensitivity for soil organic carbon to climate change is critical for evaluating the potential response of the terrestrial biosphere to global change. In this study, we integrated CENTURY 4.5 model with GIS to assess the soil organic carbon sensitivity to climate variable shifting and atmospheric carbon dioxide enrichment in northern Chinese grasslands. The response of top soil (0-20 cm) organic carbon to climate change depended on the relative sensitivity of net primary productivity and soil respiration. A 4°C increase in soil temperature led to a loss of 4.7% of soil organic carbon in the Alpine Meadow region, but the same temperature increase led to a maximum loss of only 2.3% of soil organic carbon in the Temperate Steppe region. The effects of precipitation changes on soil organic carbon were varied depending on the moisture level of the local grassland system. The direct effect of carbon dioxide enrichment was to reduce carbon loss throughout northern Chinese grasslands, especially in droughty regions. Alpine Meadow was the most sensitive region under climate change, and it will become the biggest potential carbon source in Chinese grasslands as climate warming continues to occur. Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations led to net carbon sequestration in all grasslands and tended to diminish the carbon loss driven by precipitation and temperature changes.