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The Kinangop highland grasslands, the world stronghold of the endangered Sharpe's longclaw (Macronyx sharpei), consist almost entirely of privately owned land. As human population in the grasslands increases, the mean acreage of land holdings decreases and more grassland is being converted to other uses. Land subdivision information, existing human population data, and current land use data from a subset of 162 farms were used to extrapolate the past and future extent of Sharpe's longclaw habitat throughout the landscape on Kinangop Plateau. It was estimated that grasslands covered 50% of the plateau in 2000, but only 58% of the grassland area was likely to be tussock grasslands, the preferred habitat of Sharpe's longclaw. Large farms are being subdivided rapidly, and more than half of the remaining tussock grasslands are likely to be found on farms that are not large enough to support large longclaw territories. We predict that by 2010 tussock grasslands will cover only one-fifth of Kinangop, and all farms that are large enough to act as longclaw reserves are likely to have been subdivided. We propose urgent prioritisation of a network of large farms (>30 ha) for conservation action.